Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 05 May 2026
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Tuesday, 5 May 2026
Surplus Widens Sharply on Surging Nickel & Coal Normalization
Indonesia's trade surplus beat expectations at USD3.32 bn in Mar '26 extending the surplus streak to 71 consecutive months since May '20. On the export side, the RKAB resolution unlocked coal catch-up shipments. Import deceleration was the key surprise. Capital goods fell -15.75% MoM in Mar '26, and consumer goods contracted 10.81% YoY, well below market expectations.
Indonesia's trade surplus is expected to remain resilient in 2Q26, supported by the full normalisation of coal shipments, continued downstream export growth, and stable CPO prices. The expansion of copper smelter capacity represents a further medium-term tailwind for downstream export performance. Key risks to monitor include escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued US trade policy uncertainty.
Regards,
Fikri C Permana, Khairunnisa N S - KBVS Research Team