Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 06 Jan 2026
KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Tuesday, 6 January 2026
Improving Trade Balance Fails to Lift FX Reserves Amid Rising Volatility
Indonesia’s external trade position remained resilient in Nov ‘25, underpinned by a sustained trade surplus that widened to USD2.66 bn. On a monthly basis, exports contracted by -7.08% MoM, extending the downward trend and reflecting continued softness in external demand. Meanwhile, imports fell by -9.09% MoM.
Looking ahead, we believe that the lack of a meaningful recovery in China’s consumption and ongoing trade frictions with the US will remain key constraints on Indonesia’s export growth. On the domestic front, seasonal factors, including Lunar New Year, Ramadan, and the Eid holiday period, are expected to support higher import demand in the coming months, particularly for consumer goods.
Beyond depreciation pressures, heightened Rupiah volatility is likely to remain a structural feature throughout 2025 and could extend into 2026. Against this backdrop, we expect Bank Indonesia to maintain the BI Rate at its current level at the January 20–21, 2026 RDG-BI meeting.
Regards,
Fikri C Permana – KBVS Research Team