Indonesia Macro Update - Trade Balance 15 Aug 2023

KBVS MACRO UPDATE
Tuesday, 15 August 2023

Trade Surplus in Jul ‘23 Deteriorates : Driven By An Increase In Oil And Gas Imports

The trade balance continued to maintain a surplus for the 39th consecutive month in Jul '23, albeit decreasing to USD1.31Bn (Prev : USD3.46Bn), and fell short of both consensus (USD2.53Bn) and KBVS expectations (USD2.67Bn). In terms of usage categories, imports of Consumer Goods increased by 31.89% (mtm); the Intermediate Goods category 12.57% (mtm); and the Capital Goods 11.18% (mtm). On the contrary, the majority of Indonesia's leading export commodities experienced declines.

The global energy price developments, are causing concerns regarding the potential for increased oil and gas imports ahead. Conversely, the return of Palm Oil Futures to nearly MYR4000 per ton in mid-July is expected to bolster domestic export prospects. Simultaneously, we are observing the developments in the Manufacturing PMI and the demand boost from key trading partners, particularly China. Likewise, the trend of the depreciation of the Rupiah is expected to enhance the comparative advantage of Indonesian export products in the global market.

 

Regards,

Fikri C Permana - KBVS Research Team

Download