ISAT - Stable Subscribers Anchor Data-Led Growth; Momentum Improving

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 5 May 2026

ISAT - Stable Subscribers Anchor Data-Led Growth; Momentum Improving
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR2,500)

Inline 1Q26 results; improving sequential momentum. 1Q26 broadly inline, with resilient top-line growth (+12.1% YoY) driven by data and ARPU uplift, offsetting mild subscriber decline. Margins held firm (EBITDA +12.9% YoY, 57.0%), supported by disciplined costs, though higher interest limited net profit expansion.

FY26F: data-led growth intact; early run-rate tracking. Maintain FY26F: data-led growth intact. We forecast data revenue +7.6% YoY (IDR46.7tn), supported by stable subs, +8.3% traffic, steady yields, and modest ARPU uplift. Home broadband offers incremental upside. Total revenue seen at +4.9% YoY (IDR59.3tn), inline with guidance.

Margins resilient on disciplined cost trajectory. Margins should remain resilient on tight cost-control. We expect total expenses to grow 3.4% YoY, supporting EBITDA +5.6% YoY, with net profit at IDR6.0 tn (10.2% margin), inline with guidance.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR2,500, based on 3.3x FY26F EV/EBITDA(+0.5SD 5yrs avg. historical mean).

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research