JPFA - Solid FY25 earnings, but with strong headwinds ahead
KBVS Update
Thursday, 05 Mar 2026
JPFA - Solid FY25 earnings, but with strong headwinds ahead
(HOLD, with lower TP IDR2,500/share)
* Japfa Comfeed Indonesia' (JPFA) earnings grew significantly (+72.5% yoy/+35.5% qoq) in 4Q25, mainly supported by better livebird' (LB) and day old chick' (DOC) demand and average selling prices (ASP), amid lower soybean-meal prices (SBM), despite higher local corn (LC) prices. As a result, JPFA' net profit grew 32.6% yoy to IDR4 tn in FY25, which came above ours' (118.1%) and consensus expectation (120%).
* JPFA' revenue grew 21.3% yoy/12.7% qoq in 4Q25 on better chicken demand and ASP amid festivities. Note that, LB’ and DOC ASP reached IDR21,597 per kg and IDR6,952, respectively in 4Q25 or the highest ASP vs other quarters in 2025. Thus. JPFA' revenue grew 8.8% yoy to IDR60.72 tn in FY25, which came in-line with ours' (99.1%) and cons' expectation (100.9%).
* JPFA' gross profit grew 36.7% yoy/30.2% qoq to IDR4.48 tn in 4Q25, due to higher sales and ASP, with low SBM prices, despite higher LC' prices, yoy. JPFA' EBIT grew 58.5% yoy/27.2% qoq to IDR2.27 tn in 4Q25 on better cost management. All in all, JPFA’ gross, EBIT and net margin expanded to 21.7% (+160bps yoy), 10.1% (+80bps yoy) and 6.6% (+120bps yoy), respectively in FY25.
* We adjusted our Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA) ‘26F revenue and earnings to incorporate good FY25 results, and to anticipate potential margin pressure due to latest government’ requirements on Soybean-meal (SBM). We anticipated JPFA' revenue to reach IDR66.34 tn (-1.1% from prior) with around 20bps yoy gross margin contraction in ‘26F. All in All, we still expect JPFA’ revenue and earnings to grow by 9.3% yoy and 6.6% yoy, respectively in ‘26F on higher chicken demand with stable ASP, amid potential margin pressure ahead from SBM.
* Maintain HOLD on JPFA with lower TP of IDR2,500/share, which implies 6.8x ‘25F P/E. Currently, JPFA is trading at 6.2x ‘26F P/E or at its -0.5 stdev of its 5 years’ mean P/E.
Regards,
Andre Suntono - KBVS Research team