TLKM - 4Q24F still growing, but ‘25F forecast lowered

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 25 March 2025

TLKM – 4Q24F still growing, but ‘25F forecast lowered
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR3,400)

Projected 19.3% qoq FMC revenue growth in 4Q24F. In 4Q24F, TLKM’s FMC segment revenue is projected to surge by 19.3% qoq to IDR33.4 tn, driving TLKM’s total revenue to IDR36.8 tn for the quarter, while effective cost management is expected to reduce cash costs by 5.5% qoq, supporting a 4.6% qoq increase in EBITDA.

‘25F forecasts revised down amidst competitive pressures. We lowered our ‘25F financial forecasts by 3.6%-9.3% despite stronger-than-expected 9M24 data usage (78.0% of ‘24F). Indihome faces competitive pressure from expanding FBB providers, leading to a more conservative ‘25F ARPU forecast of IDR247.0k (-6.8%). However, low FBB penetration & Indihome’s strong market position still offer monetization opportunities.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR3,400, based on 4.0x ‘25F EV/EBITDA (-1.5SD of 7yrs-historical mean).

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research