Automotive Sector - Another inline monthly sales, despite ongoing pressure

KBVS Update
Wednesday, 15 October 2025

Automotive - Another inline monthly sales, despite ongoing pressure
(Maintain Overweight)

* Despite this tough market (Sept25 -15.1% yoy, +0.5% mom, 9M25 -11.3% yoy and much better vs previous year), the 9M25 sales volume remains in line with our 2025 industry forecast, hitting a 69.3% run rate. This is slightly slower than the five-year average for this period, which was 72.3%.

* Astra's market share spiked 456bps in Sept25, driven by a robust sales performance from Toyota (+18.7% YoY) and Daihatsu (+7.7% YoY). This surge came amidst significant weakness in the non-Astra segment, marked by sharp sales declines from key competitors: Mitsubishi (-36.9% YoY) and Suzuki (-16.4% YoY).

* Furthermore, the highly-anticipated non-Japanese EV brand, BYD, faced a setback, with sales sharply dropping from 2,562 units to 1,088 units. Despite forecasts for competitive erosion, particularly in the EV space (BEV, HEV, PHEV), Astra is poised to maintain its overall dominance and continue leading the crucial HEV segment, underpinned by the popular Kijang Innova Zenix Hybrid.

* The 2W market is experiencing slow growth, primarily due to ongoing pressure on the purchasing power of middle-to-low-income consumers this year. Domestic motorcycle sales volume in Sept5 came at a stronger growth of +7.3% yoy and became the highest growth throughout this year. Yet, we did not take this as a sign of domestic market recovery due to sustained weakening monthly sales of -1.9% mom from -1.5% mom in the previous month (Aug25).

* Maintain our OW stance. Despite the potential continuing pressure, we anticipate both 2W and 4W sales will be in line with our FY25 forecast. ASII has noted a capital gain of +24.5% since our first report in 2025 and 15.9% return since our latest report in Aug25, while on YTD basis ASII stock return: 18.9%. With ASII's closing price many times surpassed our SOTP-based TP, we are initiating a model revisit to accommodate this price movement and update our valuation.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research