SMRA - Earnings normalize; recurring income offers stability

KBVS Update
Friday, 19 September 2025

SMRA - Earnings normalize; recurring income offers stability
(Reiterate BUY - TP: IDR520)

1H25 results normalize after high base in 1H24. SMRA posted 2Q25 revenue of IDR2.5 tn (+17.7% qoq), bringing 1H25 revenue to IDR4.6 tn (-19.3% yoy), or 51.7% of the full-year target. Despite higher costs, 1H25 gross profit reached IDR2.3 tn (52.1% of target). EBITDA fell 31.0% yoy but remained inline at 49.5% of our target.

Earnings normalize in ‘25F with resilient recurring income share. SMRA’s results remain on track, and the ‘25F forecasts are unchanged. Property development revenue is projected to decline 25.4% yoy to IDR5.6 tn after a strong ‘24A. In contrast, recurring revenue is expected to rise 4.6% to IDR3.3 tn. Overall, ‘25F revenue is forecast to decline 16.6% to IDR8.9 tn, with recurring income accounting for 36.8% of the total, helping stabilize earnings.

Reiterate BUY with TP of IDR520. Maintain our BUY call with a target price of IDR520, using 5yrs DCF (WACC: 11.3%; LTG: 3%), implying 0.7x ‘25F P/B and 87.1% discount to ‘25F RNAV.

Regards,
Steven Gunawan - KBVS Research