BRIS - Robust FY23 earnings to continue in ‘24F

KBVS Update
Tuesday, 20 Mar 2024

BRIS: Robust FY23 earnings to continue in ‘24F           
(Maintain BUY; TP: IDR2,970)

•    BRIS solid earnings growth will continue this year, and we expect to witness PATMI grow by around 15.9% year over year to IDR 6.61 trillion. BRIS projected its profit after tax to hover within the range of IDR6.3tn–IDR6.5tn.

•    Higher TPF coupled with better CASA likely remain intact. In all, our total TPF growth for BRIS this year of 7.8% yoy is more conservative than ‘24F management guidance at 8.5%–10% yoy. We forecast BRIS total financing growth at 14.5% yoy. The bank is expecting ‘24F total financing to grow by 15% year over year.

•    BRIS Bank's January 24 earnings growth came in at a solid figure and recorded much better growth compared to all banks under our coverage. On the balance sheet side, total financing remains strong at a double-digit rate, while total third-party funds are reported higher, thanks to continuing robust CASA growth.

•    We strongly believe that BRIS stock should be traded at a higher valuation, mainly on the back of its huge potential growth in the upcoming year. We raise our sustainability rate assumption by 5% and post fine-tune our various assumptions, we end up with a higher normalized RoE by 20bps and 10bps in ‘24F/’25F.  

•    Maintain BUY with a higher TP of IDR2,970. Our new TP is IDR2,970/share, which using the Gordon Growth Model pegged at 3.2x ‘24F PB. Currently, the stock is trading at 2.8x ‘24F P/B, or slightly above its average historical mean.

Regards,
Akhmad Nurcahyadi - KBVS Research